Countering the threat of China in the Indo-Pacific: the role of the Quad

This post is by Dr Haro Karkour, Online Tutor for Queen Mary Online's MA in International Relations and MSc in International Public Policy. Haro's research focuses on International Relations (IR) Theory.

On 24 May 2022, leaders of the ‘Quad’ nations - Australia, India, Japan, and the United States - met in Tokyo to discuss security and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. Originated in 2004, the purpose of the Quad was to coordinate humanitarian assistance and disaster relief following the Indian Ocean Tsunami. By 2017, the Quad’s role morphed to wider cooperation to keep the region ‘free and open’ and meet ‘diverse twenty first century challenges’.

America’s goal

While countering China is not stated as the goal of the Quad, it is clear that the rise of China has prompted this reformulation of the Quad’s ambition to cooperate under US leadership towards a ‘free and open’ Indo Pacific region. In an uncertain geopolitical future, due to China’s meteoric rise, Jake Sullivan, the US National Security Advisor, stated US interests under the Quad as nothing less than to maintain America’s strategic position in the region. The US goal, in other words, is a policy of the status quo: to maintain the ‘rule based’ international order against potential Chinese revisionism.

The Quad and the ‘rule based’ order

How would the Quad contribute to maintaining the ‘rule based’ order in the India-Pacific region? Two initiatives are notable here from the meeting on 24 May. First, the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness (IPMDA). This initiative, as stated by the US government, ‘will transform the ability of partners in the Pacific Islands, Southeast Asia, and the Indian Ocean region to fully monitor the waters on their shores and, in turn, to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific’.

The second initiative involves deepening cooperation on critical and emerging technologies to reduce vulnerabilities in global supply chains and set common technical standards for G5 communication and cyber security.

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Stabilising the status quo

Can the Quad successfully stabilise the status quo in the Indo-Pacific? To some this task can only be accomplished through cooperation in the military realm. For instance, expanding joint military exercises.

To counter China’s claims in the South China Sea, Quad nations in this case, according to former US defence secretary and other senior officials, would need to deepen ‘regional maritime security cooperation; capacity building of smaller navies; increased information sharing; and regular, joint maritime patrols that maintain freedom of navigation in international waters and deny Beijing the ability to intimidate and coerce smaller nations’.

To critics, such as Kishore Mahbubani, the emphasis on military cooperation is misguided for two reasons. First, Quad nations diverge in their national interests. This was seen in the recent Ukraine crisis, where India chose not to side with US against its own interests vis-a-vis Russia. Second, and relatedly, China’s vast market and economic power, and the incentives the latter provide for economic cooperation.

Creating political will

These military and economic arguments hinge on two factors that make an alliance work - political will and capabilities - and these remain relevant in the case of the Quad, despite it not being a formal alliance. Common threat does not guarantee political will or the possession of capabilities to counter it. The threat of Nazi Germany did not automatically create a political will to form a Western alliance, nor did the threat of Israel translate into Arab capability to defeat it.

The relationship between capability and political will is subject to political judgement. Nations judge their own capabilities and how much political will they are willing to invest in an alliance against the background of economic and military realities.

The cost of antagonising China

Quad nations, such as India, Australia and Japan, will ultimately base their political judgment against the military and economic realities in the region. In a reality of 6 trillion dollar worth of Chinese imports market (as of 2021), to what extent would Quad nations accept antagonising China as a reasonable cost to forfeit economic opportunity?

With the potential of a great power war over Taiwan, would Quad nations be willing to align their national interests with US policy at the cost of being embroiled in a regional war? And, if the Quad nations agree to align their interests, would their collective capabilities put the status quo into a military advantage in the long-term?

It is upon these questions that depends not only the success of the Quad, but also the ‘rule based’ international order that the US promoted since 1945 and which is currently under threat in the Indo-Pacific.

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